n8rngtd.topPittsburgh Pirates rookie Paul Skenes has taken Major League Baseball by storm, and he has a chance to become the second player to ever win the Cy Young award as a rookie.
Fernando Valenzuela is the only other player to complete that feat, but Skenes' odds to win Cy Young have skyrocketed this month, pushing him into the No. 3 choice at DraftKings at +300 odds. Back on July 11, Skenes was +1200 to win Cy Young, but that number has shrunk all the way down to 3/1 after he tossed 8.1 innings of two-run ball on Tuesday night.
Based on implied probability, Skenes has gone from a 7.69 percent chance to win the award (+1200) to 25.0 percent (+300) in less than two weeks!
Skenes has dominated night in and night out, and it appears that he's in a three-man race with Zack Wheeler and Chris Sale for the NL Cy Young at this stage in the season.
2024 NL Cy Young Odds
- Chris Sale +140
- Zack Wheeler +175
- Paul Skenes +300
- Tyler Glasnow +2500
- Logan Webb +3500
- Ranger Suarez +4000
- Dylan Cease +5000
- Reynaldo Lopez +5000
Our own Jennifer Piacenti recently broke down Skenes' case for the NL Cy Young award, but his odds have moved even more since then (he was +500) after throwing 8.1 innings of two-run ball on Tuesday night.
The body of work for Skenes so far in 2024 can't be denied. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in all 12 of his starts, striking out a ridiculous 97 batters in 74.2 innings of work.
Does he have enough time to truly catch Wheeler or Sale? It's not impossible, especially if Skenes can keep a pace close to the one he's set through 12 starts.
The rookie has 1.93 ERA (better than Wheeler and Sale who are at 2.55 and 2.70), a 2.58 FIP, and he ranks in the 97th percentile in expected ERA. Not only that, but the Pirates star ranks in the 91st percentile or better in strikeout percentage, walk percentage opponent expected batting average against and pitching run value.
That's the profile of a Cy Young candidate.
Pittsburgh is also 8-4 in Skenes' 12 starts (he has a 6-1 record in games he's earned the decision), and it is in play for a playoff spot in the NL, sitting just 1.5 games back of the final wild card spot.
If Skenes keeps up this pace over the final two months of the season, he's going to have a real case to win the Cy Young in 2024.